On 08 December 2024, Syria fell to rebels when the group entered Damascus. The fall brought an end to the Bashar al-Assad family rule of five decades to an end. The episode portrays a transformative shift in the modern history of the Middle East. It shows the changing dynamics of geopolitics in the region. Let us delve into what happened in Syria. Who are rebels? How did the government of Bashar al-Assad fall to insurgents? Interest of the USA, Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia in Syria? And last but not least the future of Syria.
Historical Context: The Assad Dynasty
Syria is a predominantly Sunni nation. In 1970, Hafez al-Assad established an Alawite dynasty in the country. To strengthen its government, Hafez elevated minority Alawites to important positions in the country. Further, he consolidated his power by exploiting and dividing political divisions. Surrounding himself only with his supporters without anyone to criticize his wrongdoings was a major factor that would lead to the dynasty’s fall in the future.
Known for his harsh rule against dissent, Hafez crushed a Muslim Brotherhood uprising in 1982, also known as the Hama massacre. His son Bashar al-Assad inherited his legacy and came to power in 2000.
Bashar’s rule was not smooth. Economic mismanagement and escalating inequality further distanced people from the Bashar regime. Widespread poverty and reported corruption in Bashar’s administration further fueled public discontent. Among other reasons, the displacement of thousands of rural Syrians due to floods in the 2000s set the stage for unrest observed during the Arab Spring in 2011.
The Civil War: A Nation in Turmoil
Peaceful protests in 2011 during the Arab Spring turned the country into a civil war when the State started a crackdown. The violence led to the formation of several private militias initially and later the country saw the rise of extremists Islamic State (IS) and Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS). War in Syria claimed the death of millions of lives and displacement leaving Syria a devastated nation.
During the civil war, Assad’s major strength was his allies i.e. Iran-backed Hezbollah and Russia for its air power. Particularly, in 2015, the tide turned in favour of Assad when Russia carried out air strikes on anti-Assad forces. Soon after, Assad was able to capture Aleppo, the second-biggest city in the country. But the capture also led to widespread destruction of the country.
The Fall of Damascus
In the latter half of November 2024, an Islamist faction group of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) along with other rebel groups launched a major offensive against Bashar’s regime. Starting from Aleppo, the group soon captured Hama, and Homs and swiftly moved towards Damascus, the capital of Syria. On 07 Dec 2024, the rebels surrounded the capital and captured Damascus the next day. Reportedly, Bashar al-Assad fled the country and is currently somewhere in Russia.
Two major allies of Bashar i.e. Russia and Iran who had been strong pillars of Bashar’s regime could not help him this time. Russia is currently fighting in the Ukraine war, while Iran is waging a cold war with Israel. Bashar used to depend mainly on these two allies which is why he did not focus much on building his resilience against its opponents for the future.
Who is HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani?
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is a 42-year-old leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group. The group was once linked with Al-Qaeda (AQ) till 2016 when reportedly the group finished links with AQ. During the civil war in Syria, the group controlled most parts of Idlib province.
He was born in Saudi Arabia. His father’s name is Ahmed Hussain al-Shara. He is reportedly a child of Syrian exiles as his family moved back to Syria in the 1980s. In 2003, al-Jolani went to Iraq and joined AQ. He was also arrested by US forces and kept in jail in Iraq for long.
After the jail, al-Jolani went to Syria and formed the Nusra Front which was an affiliate of AQ. This Nusra Front eventually evolved into HTS in the future. After breaking ties with AQ, the group focused on the organized struggle for governance in Syria.
It is pertinent to mention here that HTS is still a terrorist organization for the US government, which has offered a $10 million bounty for HTS leader, al-Jolani. Similarly, Turkey also considered HTS a terrorist organization.
Al-Jolani has declared the fall of Assad’s regime as a turning point in the history of Syria. The takeover of HTS and other rebels was celebrated as a historic victory. But it is yet to be seen what kind of government al-Jolani will form. In his victory speech at Damascus’s Ummayyad Mosque, he called for Syria of All agenda. It would be a real test for him to unite the Syrians under one flag. As President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine who was once criticized and then became a hero for his country during the war, in the same manner, this is a crucial time for al-Jolani to either be a hero and leave the country towards another disaster.
Geopolitical Implications: Israel, USA, Iran, Russia
The fall of the regime in Syria is going to have profound implications for the region. Iran’s influence, a major ally of Assad, has significantly diminished. Similarly, Hezbollah in Lebanon who are fighting Israel would also get a setback as support from their Syrian ally gets halted. Similarly, Russia’s continued engagement in large-scale war with Ukraine has made it unable to help Assad at a crucial time.
With Russia and Iran on the back foot, Israel has taken a more assertive approach. Israel conducted airstrikes against military assets in Syria. Similarly, Israeli forces have also moved positions into Golan Heights and bordering part of Syria. As per the Times of Israel, al-Jolani has said that his group is open to friendship with everyone in the region including Israel.
The USA President Joe Biden called the fall of Assad’s regime a moment of historic opportunity. Further pledged help and support for the country. Similarly, the newly elected President Donald Trump in his tweet said Assad is gone. He has fled his country. Russia could not protect him this time.
The Humanitarian Crises
The fall of Assad’s regime would not bring an end to Syrians’ suffering. About 90% of the Syrians are living in poverty. This is due to the continued destruction and devastation in the country under Assad’s regime. Millions of people are displaced and left people without any necessities. It would be a big challenge for the new government in Syria to help these people and win their hearts.
Although the international community has called for humanitarian aid and support for Syria. However, the nature of future government is still unclear. History has not been smooth in the countries which are led by militias due to conflicting interests within the groups. Similarly, the future government would also have to think about its allies and in the current volatile geopolitical sphere in the Middle East, it would be a difficult choice.
Future Prospects
The fall of Syria’s authoritarian regime marks a new chapter in the country’s history, but the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Establishing a stable and inclusive government will require overcoming deep-seated divisions and addressing the grievances that fueled the uprising. The international community’s role will be critical in ensuring that the gains of the revolution are not undone by factionalism or extremist agendas.
While the end of Assad’s rule offers a glimmer of hope, the journey towards a peaceful and prosperous Syria remains uncertain. The lessons of the past decade underscore the importance of resilience, dialogue, and inclusive governance in building a future free from tyranny and conflict.
The situation in Syria is a stark reminder of the complexities of post-conflict reconstruction and the enduring impact of authoritarian rule. As the country embarks on this new chapter, the collective efforts of its people and the international community will determine whether Syria can emerge from the shadow of war and build a brighter future for its citizens.