Exploring the Russia-Ukraine War: Who Is Winning and What’s Next?
February 2022 marked the start of Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. On 24 Feb, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. The prime reason behind the invasion was the closeness of Ukraine to NATO. As of 2024, Ukraine is still trying to become part of NATO. As the war continues with both countries trying their best to target each other forces, the war itself has global significance. The Russia-Ukraine war has had a major impact on international markets, particularly in terms of food supply.
Let’s explore the current status of the Russia-Ukraine War in detail. Who is winning the war? What military, geopolitical, and economic factors are playing crucial roles in it? What is the future and solution of the war? If you are looking for answers to these questions, then you have found the right article.
Background of the Conflict
The Roots of the Conflict: From Crimea to Full-Scale Invasion:
Before going deep into details of who is winning the war? It is pertinent to discuss how the conflict started in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and how from that movement Russia decided to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In late 2013, protests broke out in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. The primary reason for the protest was a rejection of an economic deal by the then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych with the EU. Protests widened across the country with a crack-down of protestors by the State, the President fled the country in Feb 2014.
Russian Annexation of Crimea and the Donbas Crisis
In March 2014, Russian troops took control of Crimea. Russia cited the reason to protect the Russian citizens and speakers. After a local referendum in Crimea, Putin annexed Crimea with Russia. Just two months later, due to ethnic crises, pro-Russian separatists held their referendum in the Ukrainian parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. Following the referendum conflict started between Ukranian forces and Russian-backed forces in the newly held referendum regions. The conflict converted into an active stalemate with regular fighting.
Failed Peace Efforts: The Minsk Accords and Stalemate
France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine attempted a peace effort in February 2015 called the Minsk Accords. They pursued peace initiatives during the conflict. The Minsk Accords remained unsuccessful.
NATO and US Involvement: Rising Tensions Before the Invasion
Other than Ukraine and Russia, several key players remained involved in the conflict. In 2016, NATO sent four battalions to Eastern Europe. In 2017, the USA sent two tank brigades to Poland. Similarly, the USA imposed sanctions on Russian officials and companies in 2018. Ukraine also participated in joint NATO military exercises making Russia more concerned. In 2021, Russia started moving towards the Ukraine border. Despite warnings of incoming invasions, Russia started a full-scale war with Ukraine in Feb 2022.
Following the full-scale invasion, the USA and NATO imposed several sanctions on Russia. The invasion also led to global food crises which eased when Russia allowed grain shipments in 2023.
Assessing Who Is Winning: Military Perspective
Territorial Control:
Russia has been gradually moving and capturing territory of the Eastern part of Ukraine. Ukraine has also been successful in slowing down Putin’s offensive against its territory. Let’s find out who is controlling what.
Before May 2024, Russian forces remained engaged in the Eastern part of Ukraine i.e. Donetsk region. However, in May 2024, Russia attacked from the Northern part and crossed to Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-biggest city. The fight continues in Kharkiv between the two opposing sides. Analysts assess that Russia will target the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk next as it continues its assault on Ukraine’s bordering areas.
Back in February 2024, the Ukranian forces had withdrawn from the Avdiivka area after intense clashes. While Bakhmut remains an intense point of clashes between the forces. Moreover, Russian forces have taken the eastern territory of Kharkiv, Kherson and surrounded the port city of Mariupol.
In August 2024, Ukraine launched a surprise attack and moved up to 18km inside Russia. Putin called the attack a major provocation. Within 02 weeks, Ukraine claimed to have control over 1200 sq km of Russian territory and 93 villages. Authorities declared an emergency in the Russian areas of Kursk and Belgorod. Although Russia has regained some of the territory, observers still report the presence of Ukrainian troops in Kursk.
The below chart from the Institute of the Study of War shows the territorial control during the ongoing war.
Casualties and Losses:
According to the UK Chief of Defence Staff Sir Tony Radakin, more than 1,500 Russian soldiers were being killed or wounded every day in October 2024. That is the highest rate since the beginning of the war, exceeding the 1,200 being killed or wounded every day in May and June.
As per the UK Ministry of Defense, at least 70,000 Russian troops have been killed while more than 500,000 are either killed or injured in total. Similarly, as of October 2024, more than 654,000 Russian soldiers were killed in Ukraine. As per Western media, an estimated 80,000 Ukranian soldiers have been killed since Feb 2022. In June 2024, Putin claimed that Kyiv is losing at least 50,000 service personnel every month.
As per the Analyst, Ukraine would not be able to sustain the war on itself for long. Due to its fewer troops as compared to Russia and mainly dependence on Western aid to continue its counter-offensive. Despite the challenges, Russia is likely to sustain the war for long. This sustainability factor will be a major factor in any discussion on the peace deal between the two countries.
Key Successes and Failures:
Ukraine’s successful counteroffensives
Ukraine has successfully launched a counter-offensive campaign in the areas of Kharkiv and Kherson. The country has successfully recaptured their territory. One of the primary reasons behind the success of Ukraine is Western military and financial aid bolstering its defence capabilities. Besides, Ukraine has isolated Russia in terms of global sympathy and support.
Russia’s setbacks
At the start of the offensive, Russia expected a swift victory over Ukraine, however, the conflict was found to be more complex. It is a known fact that continuous war brings pressure on the country’s economy. In this regard, Russia is also facing shortages of logistics, supply and transportation. The country is also facing severe economic restrictions on the global stage as well. Despite its successful offensive, Russia has also suffered severe casualties.
Economic and Logistical Aspects
Impact on Russia’s Economy:
Sanctions have caused significant economic strain, including a reduction in GDP by 7-10% compared to pre-war forecasts. Russia faces a federal budget deficit of 2,400 billion roubles in Q1 2023 and a tumbling currency value, leading to financial instability. Manufacturing remains stable, but the focus has shifted to war-related products. Civil spending has declined, with cuts in health (9%), education (2%), and infrastructure (24%). Russia risks a “brain drain” and weakened ties with the West, impacting its technical and cultural development. Social and political stability is also threatened by the economic downturn.
Impact on Ukraine’s Economy:
Ukraine’s GDP dropped by 30-35% in the war’s first year, marking its largest-ever recession. Poverty rose from 5.5% to 24.2%, adding 7.1 million more people to the count. Critical infrastructure, including ports and farms, has been destroyed, severely impacting agriculture, which accounted for 45% of Ukraine’s export revenue before the war. Over six million Ukrainians have fled, leading to a workforce shortage. This migration, while protective for individuals, has long-term repercussions for the economy.
International Support for Ukraine:
Western nations have provided extensive financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Initiatives like the Black Sea Grain Initiative momentarily boosted Ukraine’s economy by enabling grain exports. International military support has helped Ukraine sustain its defences and maintain some economic activities amid destruction.
Supply Chains and Resource Management:
The war disrupted agricultural exports, with some recovery through the Black Sea Grain Initiative. However, Russia’s withdrawal in July 2023 has led to new challenges, risking future export volumes. Russia has redirected resources towards military production, significantly cutting funding for public services and infrastructure. The war exacerbated food and energy supply issues, fueling global inflation and increasing production costs. Developing nations reliant on Ukrainian and Russian exports face severe food insecurity.
Geopolitical and Diplomatic Dimensions
NATO and Western Support:
NATO and Western nations have provided significant support to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022. For instance, NATO through its Comprehensive Assistance Package has allocated USD 870 million for Ukraine support. Likewise, the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) was created in 2024 at the Washington Summit.
Moreover, in April 2024, the US announced a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine including an air-defense system. EU and the United Kingdom have been major contributors to military aid to Ukraine. Furthermore, the IMF has also approved a $15.6 billion financial assistance package for Ukraine.
Russian Alliances:
Russia’s alliances have significantly shaped the conflict in Ukraine, providing critical support to Moscow amid its isolation from much of the international community. North Korea has supplied artillery shells, missiles, and possibly troops, bolstering Russia’s military efforts while benefiting from financial and technical support for its missile and nuclear programs. Similarly, Iran has contributed drones and ballistic missiles, deepening its military ties with Russia as both nations oppose U.S. influence. Meanwhile, China’s strategic partnership with Russia has facilitated record trade and military cooperation, enabling Russia to access dual-use goods essential for its war machine.
Other alliances, such as those with Belarus and South Africa, have offered political and logistical backing. Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory as a staging ground and host nuclear weapons, while South Africa’s historical ties to Moscow during the anti-apartheid struggle have translated into diplomatic support. These alliances, rooted in shared interests and opportunistic collaborations, have helped Russia sustain its campaign in Ukraine and challenge Western dominance on multiple fronts.
Peace Talks and Negotiations:
Multiple rounds of peace talks have been held to resolve the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, beginning with the first meeting in Belarus on February 28, 2022, just days after Russia’s invasion. Subsequent negotiations, including those in Turkey, led to the Istanbul Communiqué, which proposed Ukraine abandon NATO aspirations and limit its military, with Western guarantees for its security. While both sides considered significant concessions, talks collapsed by May 2022, partly due to events like the Bucha massacre.
Russia later renewed calls for dialogue, but with doubts about its sincerity, as reports suggested it was using the time to regroup militarily. By 2024, Ukraine demands a full Russian withdrawal, prosecution for war crimes, and security assurances, while Russia insists on retaining occupied territories, gaining additional claimed provinces, and halting Ukraine’s NATO ambitions.
The Future of War
The future of the war in Ukraine hinges on several potential scenarios, ranging from prolonged conflict to varying degrees of resolution. A “long war” scenario would see both sides enduring an exhausting battle, with Ukraine attempting to rebuild amid continuous destruction. Such a drawn-out struggle risks depleting human capital, economic resources, and social cohesion. In contrast, a “frozen conflict” could stabilize frontlines temporarily but would leave Ukraine in a vulnerable position, requiring extensive defence preparations and political balancing.
Alternatively, a Ukrainian victory driven by robust Western military support could restore national confidence, encourage the return of refugees, and accelerate European integration, though it would not guarantee an immediate end to systemic governance issues. Conversely, a defeat for Ukraine, resulting from diminished Western backing or internal collapse, could fragment the country, fostering insurgencies and long-term instability. The eventual outcome will depend on sustained external support, internal resilience, and the ability of both nations to navigate the immense sociopolitical and economic challenges that the war has inflicted.
Path to Peace: Diplomacy, Security, and Reconstruction
A sustainable solution to the Ukraine war requires a multifaceted approach that combines diplomacy, security guarantees, and reconstruction efforts. Key to resolving the conflict is initiating meaningful peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, potentially mediated by neutral international actors.
These talks must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty while addressing Russia’s security concerns. In parallel, Western nations should continue supporting Ukraine’s military capabilities, ensuring that Kyiv has the leverage needed to secure a fair settlement.
Ukraine’s recent offensive into Russia’s Kursk region, while showcasing its resilience, highlights the importance of maintaining strategic balance. This operation could serve as a valuable bargaining chip, but its risks, including resource depletion and potential Russian retaliation, emphasize the need for calculated diplomacy to convert battlefield gains into political advantage.
The global community must work together to establish ceasefire agreements, secure humanitarian corridors, and lay the foundation for rebuilding Ukraine’s war-torn infrastructure. Long-term strategies should focus on economic support, political stability, and addressing broader implications such as food security and energy disruptions. While the path to peace is fraught with obstacles, the lessons from the Korean War suggest that an armistice could be achieved through sustained military pressure, diplomatic negotiations, and the involvement of neutral mediators like the United Nations. However, challenges remain, including Russia’s reluctance to compromise, Ukraine’s unwillingness to cede territory, and the complexity of international politics. Ultimately, any resolution will require balancing military, diplomatic, and post-conflict efforts to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty, security, and long-term stability.
